By Zachary Cohen, Natasha Bertrand and Alex
Marquardt, CNN
Updated: Mon, 21 Mar 2022 02:00:48
GMT
Source: CNN
US and NATO officials believe Russian President Vladimir Putin
has not backed off his original demands in talks with Ukraine, and
there is a heavy dose of skepticism in Western capitals about how
credible Moscow's engagement truly is -- even as the status of
those negotiations remains difficult to decipher, according to
multiple sources briefed on the situation.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has recently indicated he
is willing to consider some concessions to Russia to help bring an
end to the violence, including a neutrality policy -- albeit one
underpinned by robust security guarantees, raising more questions
about the current state of talks and specific elements of any peace
deal that may be under consideration.
"I'm ready for negotiations with (Putin). I was ready for the
last two years. And I think that without negotiations, we cannot
end this war," Zelensky told CNN's Fareed Zakaria in an exclusive
interview Sunday. But he warned that any failure of negotiation
attempts fail could lead to "a third World War."
Ukrainian and Russian negotiators have met four times since the
start of Russia's invasion.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov weighed in on the
possibility of Ukraine agreeing to neutral status during a media
event in Moscow on Saturday.
"After our operation in Ukraine ends, and I hope its ends with a
signing of a comprehensive agreement on the issues I mentioned --
security issues, Ukraine's neutral status with the guarantees of
its security as (Putin), a couple of months ago as I recall,
commented at a news conference on our initiative of non-expansion
of NATO, he said we understood every country needs guarantees of
its security," said Lavrov.
But details on negotiations remain scant with many NATO
countries, including the US, remaining on the outside looking in
when it comes to the secretive talks, with one European defense
official calling negotiations "a bit of a dark avenue right
now."
The Biden administration still sees no indication that Putin is
willing or ready to deescalate the conflict -- making it difficult
for US officials to be optimistic about the current state of
negotiations, one source familiar with the situation said.
But at the same time, this source also said that the US is not
pressuring Ukraine to accept or reject specific concessions and is
not involved in the negotiation process.
The US National Security Council declined to comment.
Russian demands
Some of the terms Ukraine has said it may be willing to consider
seem more feasible than others, but at the end of the day, NATO
countries are still skeptical of Russia's engagement.
"It is very close hold, and no one really knows what's going
on," the European defense official said. "Ukraine's positions
haven't changed -- ceasefire, withdrawal of troops and security
guarantees."
"Anyone who says they know something about the status of the
talks, (they) really don't," the official added.
Putin laid out several issues to achieve a ceasefire with
Ukraine in a Thursday phone call with Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan, according to Turkish presidential spokesman İbrahim
Kalin.
"The first is Ukraine's neutrality," Kalin said in an interview
with the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet published Saturday, adding that
would mean Ukraine agreeing to not become a NATO member. "Second,
disarmament and mutual security guarantees in the context of the
Austrian model. Third, the process that the Russian side refers to
as 'de-Nazification.' Fourth, removing obstacles to the widespread
use of Russian language in Ukraine. It is understood that some
progress has been made in the first four articles of the ongoing
negotiations. It is too early to say that there is full agreement
or that an agreement is about to be signed."
Kalin said Putin had additional demands that were "the most
difficult issues" -- the recognition of the annexation of Crimea
and the two so-called republics in Donbas. Kalin said these final
two issues "are not acceptable demands for Ukraine and the
international community."
"If a point is reached in the first four articles and an
agreement is reached, there can be a discussion at the leaders'
level regarding the fifth and sixth articles," Kalin said in the
interview, adding that if the negotiations take place, "it may be
possible to reach an agreement and end the war."
US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield on Sunday
declined to set terms on what the US would or would not accept when
it came to an agreement between Ukraine and Russia to end the
fighting.
"This is for the Ukrainians themselves to decide what is too
much for them. It is not our decision on that and we support their
efforts. So I can't preview what they will end up coming up in
their negotiations with the Russians," she told CNN's Jake Tapper
on "State of the Union."
Asked by Tapper again, if the US would recognize Crimea or
Donbas as a part of Russia should that be a part of the agreement,
Thomas-Greenfield again declined to answer.
"I can't say that at the moment. We certainly have not
recognized the independent Donbas regions just declared as
independent. But I can't review how we will respond to a negotiated
settlement that the Ukrainians come up with the Russians to save
the lives of their own people."
The lack of clarity about the status of negotiations is raising
additional questions about what Ukraine is willing to agree to and
how Russia's demands would be implemented if they ultimately reach
some sort of agreement.
Zelenksky said Saturday there were "compromises" his country
could not make in negotiations with Putin.
"Any compromises related to our territorial integrity and our
sovereignty and the Ukrainian people have spoken about it, they
have not greeted Russian soldiers with a bunch of flowers, they
have greeted them with bravery, they have greeted them with weapons
in their hands," he told CNN's Zakaria when asked about the Russian
demands.
"You cannot just make a president of another country to
recognize anything by the use of force," he added.
Many details of Russia's demands, whether Ukraine would accept
them and how Ukraine would even implement them remain unclear, a
senior NATO official said. That includes what it would mean for
Ukraine to adopt a "neutral" status with the West -- a possibility
that one congressional source told CNN has caused heartburn for US
officials.
"Does that mean they forswear NATO? Does that mean they forswear
the (European Union)? Can they not have any other external
assistance?" the NATO official said. "My sense is it's going to be
a very complex negotiation."
Neutrality policy
A European diplomat told CNN last week that if Ukraine were to
adopt a neutrality policy and also demilitarize, it would
effectively be a surrender -- calling such a move "Moscow-style
neutrality."
The Kremlin has floated the notion that Kyiv could adopt a
Swedish or Austrian neutrality policy. However, a Swedish diplomat
dismissed the notion of Swedish neutrality, saying the idea that
their country is neutral is not true and attempts to try to frame
it as such are consistent with longstanding Russian efforts to
misrepresent Sweden's national security policy.
"Whenever the term 'Austrian neutrality' comes up, it has to be
remembered that this is a model of an armed neutrality. This form
of neutrality doesn't mean that a country lies down its arms and
hopes that nobody attacks it. It's a neutrality where a country --
at least in theory -- is armed and ready to defend itself against
all foreign belligerents," said Martin Weiss, Austria's ambassador
to the US.
The NATO official added that it is unclear what kind of
agreement Russia and Ukraine might come to about the territory
Russia has taken control of since invading on February 24. The
official said the "hope" expressed by both Russian and Ukrainian
officials in recent days appears to be belied by the fact that
"some pretty clear differences remain" between the parties.
"I think we just need to be mindful that the Russians almost
certainly will seek to continue to resupply and will probably
continue to fight, up until the time that things are agreed," the
official said. "Whatever the solution, if there's diplomatic
resolution and there's an agreement, it has to be clear and
binding. And it has to be monitorable. ... People will be looking
to ensure that the Russians end the war conclusively. And there
isn't some lingering threat that remains."
While the source familiar with the Biden administration's view
of the talks told CNN that some of the terms Ukraine has said it
may be willing to consider seem more feasible than others, the
source also indicated that the US will be wary of Russia's
intentions until Putin shows some signs that he is ready to
deescalate.
